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Macquarie strategist Berry: Fed rate hikes less likely over the next six months than markets think

Gareth Berry, Macquarie’s foreign exchange and rates strategist, says the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates at 3.75% to 4%, with only two officials advocating a hike rather than the three expected by the market, together with plans to reduce the number of rate-setting meetings starting in 2027, makes further hikes over the next six months less likely than the market had previously assumed.

Robinhood CEO Tenev: Prediction market revenue surpasses crypto; financial super app now has 14 business lines with annualized revenue above one hundred million dollars

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said the company posted record third-quarter revenue of 1.42 billion dollars, but crypto revenue plunged 55% year over year to 120 million dollars. The real new engine is prediction markets, where revenue rose more than sixfold to 173 million dollars, surpassing crypto, as the company builds toward a financial super app.

Morgan Stanley’s Gapen: The Fed held steady, but the chair offered no convincing explanation

Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist, said what surprised him most was that the chair offered no convincing explanation for why the committee held steady this month. The real policy-based answer is that inflation is driven largely by supply-side forces, raising rates cannot produce more oil, and monetary policy can only prevent energy prices from passing through to other goods.

CSIS conversation with DiPippo: China’s techno-industrial strategy—resources are not unlimited; how to pursue self-reliance amid an economic slowdown

Gerard DiPippo, director of global macro at Eurasia Group, says China does not publish its industrial policy spending, leaving outsiders to estimate direct subsidies and tax incentives. “Unlimited resources” are therefore more a matter of imagination. Meanwhile, China’s economy is slowing significantly, and over the past five years self-reliance has become central to reducing external dependence.

No Priors interviews Serval CEO Stauch: Coding agents for enterprise IT take on ServiceNow

Serval co-founder and CEO Jake Stauch says ServiceNow is the large incumbent in this field, but every new idea has to be implemented and often lags requirements by 6 to 12 months. Serval’s approach lets agents act under a strict, deterministic approval process and audit trail, putting the ability to build directly in the hands of IT departments.

Odd Lots Talks to Barclays’ Altmann: Wall Street Remains Extremely Bullish on AI, and the Real Turning Point Would Be a Hyperscaler Tightening Capital Spending

Alexander Altmann, Barclays’ global head of equity tactical strategy, says that investors across the United States, Europe and Asia still respond overwhelmingly positively when asked about the AI story. He says the market is currently in the “denial phase,” and the first thing that could shake this conviction is a hyperscaler tightening capital spending.

Keyu Jin: Deglobalisation Never Happened; US-China Trade Peaked in 2022

London School of Economics professor Keyu Jin says that after the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, Trumpism and the energy crisis, people have been talking about deglobalisation, Cold War 2.0 and decoupling, but that is not what happened at all; US-China trade peaked in 2022, revealing a clear gap between political narratives and trade reality.

Bloomberg’s The China Show interview: Tencent Cloud’s Tong on patching the “leaky boat” and returns on AI investment

Tencent Cloud CEO Dowson Tong says capital expenditure is substantial for most players, but demand is equally strong. Tencent once had a “leaky boat” because of insufficient computing capacity and team integration challenges; its high-end models have now made marked progress, and the enormous value created by AI will eventually make the investment economics work.

Bernstein: Seagate price increases offset cost and shipment pressures; Bernstein raises earnings forecasts but cuts price target

Seagate’s average nearline hard drive selling price rose 16% quarter over quarter in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, driving better-than-expected profits. But some of the increase reflected cost pass-through, and stocking up for Mozaic 4 also slowed shipment growth. Bernstein is optimistic about future pricing but has cut its price target from $1350 to $1100 after reducing its valuation multiple.