Product upgrades and efficiency gains pushed third-quarter net profit 30% above Goldman Sachs’ forecast, but gross margin fell quarter on quarter and the near-term contribution from new businesses remains limited. Goldman raised its earnings forecasts and target price but still considers the current valuation high.
Goldman Sachs prescription tracking shows that Enhertu is changing the treatment mix in HER2-positive breast cancer, while Kisqali is expanding in adjuvant treatment. But Roche faces a lower-priced product mix and Novartis is constrained by pricing pressure, so prescription strength and revenue expectations are not moving in step.
Third-quarter profit fell short of Goldman Sachs’ expectations, prompting it to lower its earnings forecasts for 2026–2028. Lower sunflower seed procurement prices and earlier shipments ahead of the Spring Festival should support subsequent performance, but nut costs and diverging trends across established and newer channels continue to limit the recovery.
SpaceX’s expanding US ground-network footprint has heightened concerns about mobile competition, but Goldman Sachs believes European spectrum sovereignty and regulatory requirements constrain similar expansion. Switzerland, Germany and the UK are more vulnerable to the news, while European demand for sovereign networks benefits SES and Eutelsat.
Third-quarter revenue fell short of Goldman Sachs’ expectations, while cost controls supported profit. Full-year growth guidance remains unchanged, but delivery pressure has shifted to the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic that the peptide business will accelerate growth in 2027, while cutting its earnings forecasts and target prices.
Outsourced assembly and test providers are more willing to invest, and adjustments to HBM layer counts have yet to dampen customers’ purchasing appetite; higher consumables prices are also supporting earnings. Goldman Sachs believes the conditions are in place to execute capacity expansion, although the company acknowledges limited room to procure additional materials.
Third-quarter revenue in 2026 was slightly below Goldman Sachs’ expectations, while net profit met expectations with support from a lower effective tax rate. Goldman Sachs slightly lowered its earnings forecasts and target price, maintaining its Buy rating on the long-term basis of rising companion diagnostic penetration and overseas expansion.
Kering’s third-quarter revenue met expectations, but Gucci retail fell 9%, with a wholesale rebound masking weakness in the core business. Goldman Sachs has lowered its fourth-quarter growth forecast for Gucci and its group margin forecasts; growth at other brands and accelerated store closures provide support, but are insufficient to drive an improvement in second-half margins over the first half.
Gilead plans to acquire PepStar’s oral IL-23R inhibitor program, adding a piece to its all-oral combination strategy for inflammatory bowel disease. Goldman Sachs acknowledges the long-term strategy, but the lead asset remains in Phase I with no efficacy data publicly disclosed, and the deal will also reduce fourth-quarter earnings per share.
Goldman Sachs has cut its forecast for structural housing demand in 2027–2035 by 16%, while raising its forecast for two-year home price gains in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The link between the two is a sharp contraction in new-home supply; prices, construction investment and the composition of transactions will adjust on different timelines.
Goldman Sachs has cut its earnings forecasts because of weaker domestic demand and higher tax costs. BYD and NIO benefit from new products and an improved product mix, while XPeng, Li Auto and Hesai face pressure on gross margins or R&D spending; sales growth may not translate into profit growth.
Citi estimates that China’s apparent aluminum consumption rose 1% week on week from 15 October to the 22nd, while combined aluminum ingot and billet inventories fell to 897 thousand tonnes. However, total inventories remained 2% higher than in the same lunar-calendar period, and year-to-date billet consumption was still contracting.
Citi expects an upgrade in electronic-grade glass fabric specifications and tight effective supply to jointly support China Jushi’s profitability. The company targets capacity of over 2 billion meters and a high-end product share of over 35% by 2030; however, the pace of new-product certification and the release of new industry capacity will determine when this thesis materializes.
Citi’s tracking data show that in the week ended 22 October, apparent steel consumption exceeded production and inventories continued to decline. Cumulative consumption nevertheless remained lower year on year, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled inventories were also above year-earlier levels, indicating uneven improvement across products.
At the 100 sampled mines tracked by Citi, output and inventories both increased 2% week on week over October 15–21. Supply recovered from the previous week, but output was still down 4.6% year on year when aligned by the lunar calendar. By region, Shaanxi increased output, while Shanxi remained below last year’s level.
Citi sees room for an upward revision to SCC’s full-year earnings expectations: an improved AI PCB product mix and a recovery in BT substrates are driving faster profit growth. But receivables and inventory tie up cash, expansion relies mainly on new borrowing, and the fourth quarter also faces rising raw material prices and expenses.
Citi expects both companies’ third-quarter production to be broadly flat, shifting attention to full-year guidance and cash returns. AngloGold is weighed down by gold prices and mine disruptions, but free cash flow is expected to improve quarter on quarter; Gold Fields’ production is in line with guidance, while rising costs and a Ghanaian lease are constraints.
Revenue for the September quarter rose 55% year over year. Shipped capacity was slightly below market expectations, but prices rose approximately 27% year over year, and gross margin reached 58.1%. Revenue and earnings guidance for the December quarter remained above consensus. Citi is optimistic that hard drive supply and demand will support pricing, while watching whether the company can sustain its advantages in demand, costs and technology strategy.
Citi expects BJ’s third-quarter same-store sales to grow 5%, close to the market consensus, and expects full-year guidance to remain intact. However, transaction growth is slowing and earnings forecasts have been trimmed; after the stock’s approximately 40% gain this year, further revaluation requires new-store expansion alongside improvements in traffic and margins.
Citi’s tracking shows that China, Taiwan and South Korea ETFs together attracted 30 billion US dollars in a single week, while foreign investors were net sellers in Taiwan and South Korea over the same period. Fund subscriptions and foreign trading diverged, and global inflows also showed a clear preference for ETFs.
