Follow clinical progress, product pipelines, commercialization and industry performance.
A US Treasury draft would restrict equity investments, convertible debt and certain joint venture arrangements involving Chinese biotechnology companies. Goldman Sachs believes conventional licensing transactions can still proceed, but structures involving joint funding and shared profits and losses, or attached equity, may fall under the prohibition.
Third-quarter results were in line with expectations, but most of the roughly 6% rate increase in 2027 may be offset by rising medical costs. Turning the Florida contract profitable and membership losses remain key constraints on profit recovery.
JPMorgan believes oral weight-loss drugs primarily attract new patients and have yet to materially displace Zepbound; Medicare coverage has also driven Kwikpen prescriptions sharply above their June level. However, Kwikpen prescriptions fell in the latest week, while the initial uptake of Lilly’s oral drug Foundayo remains weaker than that of oral Wegovy.
JPMorgan believes Moderna’s phase three data strengthen the clinical credibility of mRNA cancer vaccines and could bolster confidence in related Chinese pipelines and demand for specialized research, development and manufacturing services. However, the distant metastasis benefit was weaker than in phase two, and indication and vaccine design remain decisive for individual programs.
J.P. Morgan believes the U.S. Treasury’s proposed rules are stricter than it expected, posing greater risks to private financing and equity-linked partnerships in China’s biopharmaceutical industry. The scope of application to standalone drug licensing remains unclear, and the final coverage could still change.
Asymchem’s third-quarter revenue fell short of Morgan Stanley’s expectations, while profit exceeded them, but growth in profit excluding non-recurring items was markedly slower than net profit growth. The company maintained its full-year revenue growth guidance of 19%–22%; concentrated deliveries in its macromolecule businesses and delayed small-molecule projects are key.
Morgan Stanley believes the draft US outbound investment restrictions challenge its more moderate policy assessment from September. Standalone licensing is relatively less affected, while whole-company acquisitions and NewCo collaborations face different constraints. Well-funded companies that can repeatedly monetize projects have an advantage.
Hearing aid sales through the US Department of Veterans Affairs channel rose 4% year over year in September. Demant continued to gain share, while Sonova recovered slightly. Bernstein is focusing on whether share gains can be sustained after new product launches and whether a greater proportion of higher-priced products can translate into a higher average selling price.
Goldman Sachs prescription tracking shows that Enhertu is changing the treatment mix in HER2-positive breast cancer, while Kisqali is expanding in adjuvant treatment. But Roche faces a lower-priced product mix and Novartis is constrained by pricing pressure, so prescription strength and revenue expectations are not moving in step.
Third-quarter revenue fell short of Goldman Sachs’ expectations, while cost controls supported profit. Full-year growth guidance remains unchanged, but delivery pressure has shifted to the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic that the peptide business will accelerate growth in 2027, while cutting its earnings forecasts and target prices.
Third-quarter revenue in 2026 was slightly below Goldman Sachs’ expectations, while net profit met expectations with support from a lower effective tax rate. Goldman Sachs slightly lowered its earnings forecasts and target price, maintaining its Buy rating on the long-term basis of rising companion diagnostic penetration and overseas expansion.
Gilead plans to acquire PepStar’s oral IL-23R inhibitor program, adding a piece to its all-oral combination strategy for inflammatory bowel disease. Goldman Sachs acknowledges the long-term strategy, but the lead asset remains in Phase I with no efficacy data publicly disclosed, and the deal will also reduce fourth-quarter earnings per share.
