Monitor global supply and demand, inventories, refining and crude prices.
A recovery in Middle East supply, increased Latin American crude supply and contracting consumption together pushed the global oil market back into surplus, but insufficient refining and processing capacity continues to keep refined-product inventories under pressure.
As of 30 October 2026, WCS was trading at discounts of 33 dollars and 46 dollars per barrel to WTI and Brent crude, respectively. Barclays believes increased competition in the US Gulf Coast region and higher tanker freight rates drove the change, and that refineries able to process Canadian heavy crude will benefit.
Combining satellite fire detections with news reports, Bernstein estimates that Russian refineries affected by recent fires account for approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity; global refining disruptions could persist if Russia and Ukraine do not reach a peace agreement or ceasefire.
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the average Brent crude price in 2027 from $80 to $88 per barrel and added an allowance for disruptions of 1 million barrels per day to its supply model. The bank believes the recent rise in oil prices has been driven mainly by a risk premium, while supply and demand adjustments have brought the global market back into balance.
Oil consumption weakened broadly across major economies in 2026, even as economic activity did not contract in tandem. JPMorgan is inclined to expect demand to rebound as the energy shock fades, while cautioning that changes in the composition of growth and energy use could lower the long-term demand trajectory.
Oil inventories in the major regions tracked by Morgan Stanley fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, but a build in refined products offset part of the crude draw. US gasoline inventories recovered while distillate stocks remained well below the seasonal average.
Citi believes the chances of a diplomatic deal and renewed escalation in the conflict over the next two weeks are closer to even; the geopolitical risk premium on crude could rise if Gulf facilities or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz come under threat.
Evercore ISI has lowered its forecast for global oil inventory draws in the fourth quarter of 2026 from 3.5 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day, but oil accumulating at sea, record freight rates and refinery damage mean the benefits of the supply-demand recovery are unevenly distributed.
Persian Gulf crude exports have returned to near their 2025 average, but refinery damage, transport constraints and deferred maintenance are slowing the recovery in refined products. Low inventories support prices, while the effect of high oil prices on demand works in the opposite direction.
