Program and guest
Bloomberg Television’s This Weekend (approximately 9 minutes and 43 seconds), featuring Jonathan Golub, chief equity strategist at Seaport Research Partners. This article covers Golub’s entire interview.
Key points
（The following paraphrases the guest’s remarks; timestamp links point to the corresponding moments in the original video.）
- This is not a bubble: S&P earnings have risen approximately 32% to 33% this year, while valuation multiples have fallen approximately 18%. The market is actually quite skeptical in its pricing of AI; a bubble means paying more and more for the same dollar of earnings, and the opposite is happening now.（https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FqKVPSTN28&t=54s）
- Professional investors and retail investors feel differently: the broad market was essentially flat for the month, but semiconductors fell approximately 15%, while defensive sectors such as health care and consumer staples rose sharply. The pattern of rotation looks like the market is pricing in “something major happening,” putting professional investors on alert.（https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FqKVPSTN28&t=123s）
- Oil prices are more likely to rise than fall over the medium term: the United States could be stuck in the conflict zone involving Iran in the Middle East for a long time. Even without large-scale fighting, the strait could be blockaded again once it withdraws. The market is mistaken to think this will “magically pass quickly.”（https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FqKVPSTN28&t=387s）
- If oil prices and inflation remain high for a prolonged period, the Fed will be forced to respond: the market still expects the Fed to hold steady, but pressure in inflation and credit markets is building. The signals from the upcoming interest rate decision are worth watching.（https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FqKVPSTN28&t=461s）
Background and notes
Subtitles cover the entire program (approximately 9 minutes and 43 seconds), and this article covers Golub’s entire interview. The market overview at the start of the program provides background; all views in the main text come from Golub’s own remarks.