The show and guest
The host of DoubleLine’s Glide Path podcast speaks with Tim Paulson in a conversation recorded on 3 November, the day of the midterm elections. Original English title: 5% Is Normal. The Deficit Isn’t. | Tim Paulson. The subtitles cover 0:00–28:12; this article covers the entire conversation.
Key points
- The Fed’s pause was expected. A rate hike in December has quietly been floated through informal channels, but it would not start a major tightening cycle. 2:05
- The Fed is moving from mild easing toward a slightly restrictive stance, while actively providing less forward guidance and letting the market price risk itself. 2:33
- The 10-year yield has eased somewhat after previously overshooting. 2:55
- The annual deficit of 2 trillion dollars is close to the peak of post-pandemic stimulus; AI productivity is currently nowhere near enough to offset an amount of that scale. 10:02
- Interest expense alone already exceeds all military spending. 21:49
Background and notes
This episode of DoubleLine focuses on the Fed’s decision to hold rates, the midterm elections and the fiscal deficit. The subtitles cover 0:00–28:12; this article covers the entire conversation. The views and timestamps are drawn from the original subtitles, and each timestamp marks the start of the corresponding passage.