Program and guest
CNBC Television’s Closing Bell Overtime (approximately 5 minutes and 07 seconds), featuring Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen. This article covers Gapen’s full interview.
Key views
(The following paraphrases the guest’s views; the timestamp links point to the corresponding locations in the original video.)
- He agrees with market expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady this week. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkYI8wrjHNU&t=64s）
- This will be a “hawkish pause”: There is no pressing reason to raise rates again today, but the policy rate still needs to move higher in the future. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkYI8wrjHNU&t=93s）
- Tighter financial conditions have already done some of the Fed’s work; market pricing is itself a form of tightening. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkYI8wrjHNU&t=113s）
- He expects two dissenting votes. The closer the number of dissents is to zero, the more dovish it sounds; three votes against a rate hike would be hawkish. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkYI8wrjHNU&t=166s）
Background and notes
Subtitles cover the full video (approximately 5 minutes and 07 seconds); this article covers Gapen’s full interview.