Program and guest
Aired on Stock Trader Network’s PreMarket Prep, macro strategist Greg Weldon (publisher of the Global Macro Strategy Report) discussed the disconnect between markets and the macroeconomy. Original English headline: Greg Weldon: Stocks Most Disconnected From Macro in 43 Years.
Key views
- The disconnect between markets and the macroeconomy is the most severe he has seen in 43 years in the business (comparable to 2008, 1987, 1998, 2000 and 2020); the AI-chip trade is less than 20% of GDP, and is not the economy itself. 0:51
- PPI pass-through chain: final demand 6.3% (compared with 4.8% a month ago and 3% a year ago); core final demand 5% (historically seen only in the Volcker era 1980, the Gulf War 1990, 2008 and 2022); intermediate processed goods 14.1%; unprocessed goods 21.5%. 2:00
- Services PPI was about 6%; last month, 41% of the 83 CPI services components rose by more than 4%. 3:29
- Inflation is now equal to the federal funds rate and the real interest rate is zero; the Fed is quietly conducting QE by buying Treasury bills. Warsh’s 'new monetary prescription' is 'a double act of the highest order.' 8:30
- Consumers have already been hurt: disposable income excluding transfer payments has declined for two consecutive months, and the savings rate of 3.8% is at its lowest non-pandemic level since 2009. The pain trade is to the upside (too many people are trapped short). 10:59
- He has fully closed out his short positions and currently manages accounts with 100% cash; defense is the only option. The U.S. Dollar Index at 99.50 is a key level; if the dollar breaks below it, that would be a major opportunity to buy stocks and precious metals. 14:09
Background and notes
Greg Weldon discussed the disconnect between markets and the macroeconomy, the PPI pass-through chain, Federal Reserve policy and the condition of consumers on PreMarket Prep, and offered trading advice. Subtitle coverage note: The video has 441 timestamped subtitle segments, covering 0:00–15:54 (total length 15:54), covering the entire video. The views and timestamps in this article are paraphrased from the subtitles; each timestamp marks the start of the corresponding spoken segment. Publication-time note: The publication time is approximately 03:10 on 2026-11-11 Hong Kong time, converted from the relative time displayed by YouTube when retrieved, with hour-level precision.