Show and hosts

A weekly review on the Blockworks podcast Forward Guidance, hosted by Felix Jauvin and Quinn Thompson. This article covers the full episode.

Key takeaways

(The following paraphrases the hosts’ intended meaning. Timestamp links lead to the corresponding moments in the original video.)

  • The Fed is only a supporting player: At this week’s policy meeting, the Fed held rates steady as markets expected, with two dissenting votes. The hosts said plainly that the Fed is only a supporting player in the current market; the real drivers are the AI trade, oil prices and other factors. 3:39
  • Cracks are appearing in the AI trade: Using GDP data and hyperscaler earnings as a framework, the hosts said the AI trade is showing cracks, the central issue to confront this week. 19:16
  • Capital spending guidance is the turning-point signal: Microsoft’s capital spending was 38 billion dollars, below expectations of 45 billion dollars; Google’s was 51 billion dollars, below expectations of 55 billion dollars. A host said this was precisely the signal he had been watching for since a year ago: capital spending guidance falling below expectations for the first time meant the show might be over. Both stocks then plunged. 20:16
  • Gold’s headwinds are changing: The rise in real interest rates that has weighed on gold over the past few months is easing, bonds are strengthening, and monetary policy statements are relatively dovish. The hosts believe volatility in the metals sector warrants attention. 13:58
  • Binance theft hits market sentiment: A host said last week’s assessment that the macro backdrop and crypto fundamentals were reasonably sound was interrupted this week by a theft at a leading exchange on the order of 6 billion dollars. An event of that scale has a material effect on market sentiment. 53:43

Background and notes

The subtitles cover 0:00–59:22; this article covers the full episode. The views and timestamps are paraphrased from the original subtitles, and each timestamp marks the start of the segment containing the corresponding remarks.

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