In a 73-minute conversation, Threadneedle founder Ann Berry said that concerns about an AI bubble and circular financing are both reasonable—earnings reports contain almost no rigorous analysis of returns on capital expenditures. But the companies being funded today are real businesses with scale, revenue, and even profits.
BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder says the October jobs report doesn’t matter; everyone is crowded on the same side of the boat, 70% of S&P net profit growth comes from 10 companies, stock allocations are 71% versus just 8% in fixed income, and what’s happening is an “epic rebalancing.”
Baron Capital founder Ron Baron says he has already made about 30 billion dollars on Musk and aims to make hundreds of billions more over the next decade; China builds 300 gigawatts of power a year, while the U.S. builds only 20 gigawatts—power is the real race.
ARK founder Cathie Wood tells CNBC at Kennedy Space Center: Tesla and SpaceX have shed a combined 420 billion dollars in market value since the midterm elections; ARK has been buying and will concentrate on its highest-conviction names during corrections.
“Big Short” inspiration Steve Eisman says the midterms have shifted the AI narrative once again; but a slowdown in data center construction could be a major positive for hyperscalers, which may return to positive cash flow by the end of 2027.
Société Générale global strategist Albert Edwards says the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to reach 10% over the long term. At that point, the S&P’s forward P/E would be only around 6 times, and the index would fall 50–60% at some stage.
John Woods, CIO for Asia-Pacific at Lombard Odier, said that if last night’s market moves are seen as signaling a peak in AI spending, that is clearly bearish; but he leans more toward a positioning shakeout and a technical counter-squeeze. China is more insulated than Japan and South Korea, so the damage will be mild; volatility in the U.S. AI space may instead be constructive for China.
Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, says this correction is healthy and long overdue; token usage is still surging, but prices are falling; Anthropic’s revenue growth slowed from about 145% quarter over quarter in the second quarter to about 43% in the third quarter, and could be only around 20% in the fourth quarter, so valuation multiples need to come down.
Bankless hosts Ryan and David say the S&P 500 fell 4% over a day and a half, returning to June levels; the Nasdaq fell 6%, returning to April levels. It is still too early to say the AI bubble has burst. Bitcoin is holding around 76 thousand dollars near its 50-week moving average, and the Binance theft involving 6.34 billion dollars was the largest hack in history.
HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Max Kettner says this move resembles the blowup of inverse-volatility products in late January 2018; funds are being forced to liquidate now, while fundamentals have not changed; the catalyst for a turning point is Anthropic’s IPO, and a listing at a reasonable valuation would be enough.
Sebastian Page, co-head of global investments and CIO at T. Rowe Price, said the selloff had no real trigger and was a liquidation driven by sentiment and crowded positioning; token demand rose 37%, spending rose 9%, and Nvidia now trades at about 12.6x earnings, versus 30x a year ago.
Oxbow Advisors founder Ted Oakley says the cycle is ending: half his funds are in cash and Treasuries; he is a seller of Google and Microsoft; the signals he sees have appeared only twice, in 1929 and 1999.
Brookings podcast examines a paper by Columbia University professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh: U.S. data-center construction will account for about 3.6% of GDP annually by 2032, with cumulative spending exceeding 10.3 trillion dollars over 2025–2032—more than the railroad, highway, and power-grid build-outs.
ARK holds another call after the SpaceX earnings call: Musk says SpaceX will generate 1 trillion dollars in revenue in 2028; Alex Potter of Piper Sandler says Wall Street consensus is only 200 billion–220 billion dollars, “probably off by 5 times.”
The Information founder Jessica Lessin said voters gave Big Tech a gift: compute scarcity is improving the giants’ margins, while slower regulation and buildout are instead making incumbents more profitable.
AMD CEO Lisa Su says AI demand is arriving faster than anyone planned for: the data center business is growing 50% quarter over quarter from the third to the fourth quarter, and will more than double next year; the company is becoming a “data-center-first company.”
Yardeni says the 10-year Treasury yield of 5% is “very attractive” and within the normal range; under the Fed’s stock valuation model, 5% corresponds to a forward P/E of 20x, while the current multiple is only 18.5x; the single best asset to own over the next 24 months is the Nasdaq 100.
Henrik Zeberg says the bottom is in—not because things are good, but because things are so bad that the Fed has to pivot; the Nasdaq has another 30% to go, with a top around January, followed by a move modeled on 2007.
The long-term uranium price hit an all-time high in August, yet uranium stocks are still falling. Scott Melbye says the disconnect between share prices and fundamentals is an opportunity: even if not one more reactor is built for data centers, the uranium shortfall over the next 20 years will be 1.7 billion pounds.
On 30 October, gold fell more than $150 in a single day and silver fell about 6%, yet New Orleans Investment Conference host Brien Lundin says this bull market is far from over and will be the biggest and most rewarding in gold’s history.
