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Bernstein: Germany Misses Gas Storage Target, Narrowing Europe's Margin for Error in Winter Gas Supply and Demand

Europe enters the winter of 2026/27 with gas storage levels below those of a year earlier. Bernstein believes that even if liquefied natural gas imports return to their historical monthly peak and demand remains stable, inventories will still be at historically low levels at the end of the heating season; a cold winter combined with insufficient imports could create a supply shortfall.

Bernstein: Russian refinery attacks may support refining margins through 2027

Combining satellite fire detections with news reports, Bernstein estimates that Russian refineries affected by recent fires account for approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity; global refining disruptions could persist if Russia and Ukraine do not reach a peace agreement or ceasefire.