Program and guests
CNBC’s Squawk Box CPI special (10 November 2026): guests Jason Trennert (Baird chairman and CEO of strategy) and Matthew Hornbach (global head of macro strategy at Morgan Stanley). This article covers 00:13–03:35 (the Trennert and Hornbach segment; 03:35 is the natural cutoff after Waller’s one-sentence remark).
Key takeaways
- Markets have priced in a December rate hike: 2-year Treasury yields at 4.66%, 10-year yields at 4.92%; the probability of a December rate hike has reached 100%, while a March rate hike had previously been priced at 67%. 0:22
- Hornbach’s residual seasonality reminder: the three reports this fall, including today’s, were supposed to be the best of the year (residual seasonality not yet revised by the Bureau of Labor Statistics). If they are not, the implications change. 0:56
- S&P futures turned negative after the data were released, and Dow futures briefly turned negative as well, showing that the market read this CPI report as bearish. 1:19
- Trennert focused on the breadth of price increases across components: food prices matter, and supply shocks are becoming the norm. Oil prices have eased but remain well above a year ago; about one-third of global refining capacity is offline amid the Russia-Ukraine and Iran situations. Refined-product prices may stay high—he is therefore overweight energy. 1:44
- Waller’s conditional support for 50 bp (as relayed by the host): if the data are hotter, he would support a 50 bp hike in December. 3:26
Background and notes
Subtitle coverage note: the video has 545 timestamped subtitle segments and runs for 14:04 in total. This article covers only 00:13–03:35; other portions (including the latter part of the discussion of Waller’s 50 bp view, earnings and valuations) are outside its scope. Views and timestamps are relayed from the original subtitles; each timestamp marks the start of the corresponding spoken segment.