New-home transactions rebounded week on week in week 44 but remained down year on year; cumulative existing-home transactions for the year outperformed new homes. Land transactions rose in October as supply and premium rates weakened.
Goldman Sachs’ fourth-quarter survey shows respondents generally expect China’s growth momentum to remain broadly unchanged over the next six months, although more anticipate a slowdown than an acceleration. Most expect modest fiscal easing and remain cautious about a rebound in consumption and inflation.
The RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.0 in October from 52.1 in the previous month, above Goldman Sachs’ forecast. The output index rose slightly, but the new export orders index retreated, and the gap between the input and output price indices continued to point to margin pressure.
Yousongwu quickly topped TapTap’s trending chart after testing began. Goldman Sachs believes AI lowers the barriers to creation and could expand the platform’s content supply and user base; long-term value depends on its content distribution and monetization capabilities.
S&P 500 companies that have reported posted year-on-year third-quarter earnings per share growth of 33%, while European growth is expected to reach 23%; Goldman Sachs says weaker upward earnings revisions and harsher market penalties for earnings misses point to slowing growth momentum in 2027.
Long-term US forward rates recently retreated after reaching 5.2%, close to the peak policy rate of the previous tightening cycle. Goldman Sachs says when markets confirm that the current cycle of rate hikes is over will affect whether forward rates can fall further.
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for global data center capacity in 2030 from 217GW to 273GW, mainly reflecting estimates of unannounced projects further into the future; power supply, permitting and financing costs affect the pace of project delivery.
A conversation on Real Vision’s Macro Mondays: Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold discuss the sharp drop in liquidity and hedge fund deleveraging behind the October market panic, appropriations and debt ceiling risks during the midterms and lame-duck period, and slowing growth at Anthropic alongside soaring GPU spot prices.
Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO Ted Pick discussed AI infrastructure in a Bloomberg interview: capital expenditure could reach 10 trillion to 15 trillion dollars over the next decade, hyperscale cloud providers could deploy 800 billion to 1 trillion dollars annually, and companies cannot afford to fall two steps behind.
PIMCO CEO Emmanuel Roman discussed the midterm elections and interest rates in a Bloomberg interview: prediction markets put the probability of Democrats winning both the House and Senate at 60% to 65%, while 500 billion dollars in AI financing has not distorted swap spreads. High interest rates are more attributable to Middle East and energy factors.
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon discussed AI deals in a Bloomberg interview: As large financing deals involving SpaceX, Meta and others arrive and an Anthropic IPO approaches, capital market demand for AI deals is very robust, but the supercycle will not rise in a straight line.
A discussion on UBS Trending: UBS CIO expects data center power demand to reach 90GW by 2030, with spending of up to 32 trillion dollars over the next decade on infrastructure, including power transmission, distribution and generation, to meet demand. The guests expect hyperscale cloud providers to ultimately shoulder the largest share of the bill.
Bankless speaks with Aztec co-founder Zac Williamson: a race is taking shape around private smart contracts. Zcash is a private Bitcoin, while Aztec aims to build a private Ethereum—with no backdoors or centralized censors, and no need to put identities and credentials on-chain in plaintext.
Peter Schiff's own podcast: Interest spending on US national debt will exceed Social Security spending next year and will be hard to sustain even if interest rates do not rise. If rates do rise sharply, bank failures, a crash and defaults will follow; ultimately, the Fed will have no choice but to halt its rate-hiking cycle and return to quantitative easing.
Bloomberg compiled comments from several Wall Street leaders on the sidelines of Hong Kong’s Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit: supply and demand make it difficult to call AI a bubble, technology deployment has only just begun, and while volatility will occur, the long-term productivity gains are still worth anticipating.
Reuters interviewed Binance co-CEO Richard Teng at Hong Kong FinTech Week: Binance takes full responsibility for the theft of 6.3 billion dollars; losses will be covered first by the SAFU fund and then by the company's own funds. The withdrawal function has been rebuilt, and withdrawals resumed on Sunday.
China's paperboard exports to Europe rose 47% year on year in September, although Russia accounted for a large share of exports to Europe. Goldman Sachs expects European oversupply to limit price increases and put considerable pressure on Stora Enso's earnings.
The Fiserv index shows seasonally adjusted small-business sales rose 2.3% year over year in October. Transaction trends improved, but gasoline sales made a substantial contribution, and restaurant spending remained weaker than the overall figure.
In the week ending 2 November, Goldman Sachs’ supply chain congestion index rose 6% from the previous week, but the congestion level remained at 2. More vessels were waiting for berths along the US East and Gulf Coasts, while West Coast freight rates and some inland transportation indicators also showed that pressure persisted.
AMEC’s third-quarter revenue fell short of Goldman Sachs’ expectations and its gross margin improved quarter on quarter, but R&D and new-product investment pushed up its expense ratio. Goldman lowered its revenue forecasts for the coming years while remaining optimistic about long-term growth from product expansion.
